The third-quarter results from the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI)confirm that builder confidence in the mature-market sector reflects the larger housing market’s bleak landscape. Almost all categories surveyed declined from the levels reported in the third quarter of 2009.
The sector is influenced by the housing pressures of the younger buyers, explained NAHB’s Chief Economist, David Crowe. “While we have anecdotal information that some local 55+ markets are beginning to rebound, the third-quarter data show that national conditions for this sector have not yet turned the corner,” he said. “Real improvement won’t happen until we have better employment numbers, and consumers who are more confident of keeping their jobs. Those consumers will buy the homes of the 55+ age cohort, so that the mature buyers will be able to move to more appropriate housing.”
The 55+ single-family HMI measures builder sentiment based on current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for the 55+ single-family market. A number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. In the third quarter of 2010, the index came in at 15, a five-point drop from the third quarter of the previous year. Present sales dropped four points, to 15. Expected sales (six months into the future) dropped six points, to 24. And traffic of prospective buyers fell seven points, to 11.
Multifamily rentals are performing against the trend. While present production is quite low, and not expected to grow significantly in the next six months (both show index levels in the low teens), present demand came in at 28, while expected demand is at 32. These statistics indicate that more respondents see some strength in rental demand, compared to the number who see any growth in production of new rental apartments to support that demand.
Mercer County NJ and surrounding areas have many Active Adult Communities for your lifestyle. If you would like information on available properties, just call or email.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.njhomesource.com/
http://njhomesource.blogspot.com/
www.activerain.com/blogs/josephgiancarli
(resource: RisMedia.com)
Saturday, November 27, 2010
New Home Sales Down in October
According to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, sales of new single-family houses in October 2010 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 283,000,
This is 8.1% (±16.1%) below the revised September rate of 308,000 and is 28.5% (±12.6%) below the October 2009 estimate of 396,000.
The median sales price of new houses nationwide sold in October 2010 was $194,900, the average sales price $248,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 202,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate.
If you are interested in buying a new home in Mercer County or the surrounding areas, call or email me. I can suggest the best builders with the best buyer incentives. And take a look at Dogwood Meadows. There is one lot left with 3 home choices, or a spec home under construction.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
jgiancarli@remax.net
609-658-2612
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.njhomesource.com/
http://njhomesource.blogspot.com/
www.activerain.com/blogs/josephgiancarli
This is 8.1% (±16.1%) below the revised September rate of 308,000 and is 28.5% (±12.6%) below the October 2009 estimate of 396,000.
The median sales price of new houses nationwide sold in October 2010 was $194,900, the average sales price $248,200. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 202,000. This represents a supply of 8.6 months at the current sales rate.
If you are interested in buying a new home in Mercer County or the surrounding areas, call or email me. I can suggest the best builders with the best buyer incentives. And take a look at Dogwood Meadows. There is one lot left with 3 home choices, or a spec home under construction.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
jgiancarli@remax.net
609-658-2612
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.njhomesource.com/
http://njhomesource.blogspot.com/
www.activerain.com/blogs/josephgiancarli
Friday, November 19, 2010
US Becoming Severly "Underbuilt"
According to a special study by economists at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), annual single-family housing production in 2008 and 2009 fell about one million units short of the housing that would be needed in a normally functioning economy, suggesting that builders will have a lot of catching up to do as the economy improves and household formations return to trend levels. The report, "Extent of Underbuilding in the Single-Family Housing Market," finds that there was an excessive amount of single-family building from 2003 through 2005, but overbuilding largely ended by 2006 and the subsequent downturn was severe enough to more than offset those annual surpluses. This year is likely to add to the growing deficit of single-family homes by another one million units, the report finds.
"The single-family housing market in the U.S. currently finds itself in a significantly underbuilt state," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones. "Pent-up demand for housing will at some point need to be worked off, pushing single-family production in a positive direction. In the meantime, the deficit continues to grow as builders remain cut off from the credit they need to begin developing and building new housing."
Accumulating annual surpluses peaked at 493,000 single-family units in 2005, and that was worked off entirely by the end of 2007. Depressed levels of single-family housing production resulted in a cumulative deficit of 2.17 million units by 2009 and will likely grow to 3.28 million by the end of this year.
The study also found that there are now single-family housing deficits in most of the states. This includes the states that had the hottest markets during the boom: Arizona, with a deficit of 144,500; California, 49,500; Florida, 112,600; and Nevada, 75,600.
Read more at RealEstateChannel.com.
If you are interested in a new home in Mercer County or the surrounding areas in New Jersey, I can help you find available developments and builders offering quality products. I've been involved with the building trade here for more than 20 years, and can help you find the home that fits your needs.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.dogwoodmeadowsnewhomes.com/
"The single-family housing market in the U.S. currently finds itself in a significantly underbuilt state," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones. "Pent-up demand for housing will at some point need to be worked off, pushing single-family production in a positive direction. In the meantime, the deficit continues to grow as builders remain cut off from the credit they need to begin developing and building new housing."
Accumulating annual surpluses peaked at 493,000 single-family units in 2005, and that was worked off entirely by the end of 2007. Depressed levels of single-family housing production resulted in a cumulative deficit of 2.17 million units by 2009 and will likely grow to 3.28 million by the end of this year.
The study also found that there are now single-family housing deficits in most of the states. This includes the states that had the hottest markets during the boom: Arizona, with a deficit of 144,500; California, 49,500; Florida, 112,600; and Nevada, 75,600.
Read more at RealEstateChannel.com.
If you are interested in a new home in Mercer County or the surrounding areas in New Jersey, I can help you find available developments and builders offering quality products. I've been involved with the building trade here for more than 20 years, and can help you find the home that fits your needs.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.dogwoodmeadowsnewhomes.com/
Builder Confidence Improves Slightly in November
According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today, U.S. home builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved slightly in November. The HMI rose one notch to 16 from a downwardly revised level of 15 in the previous month.
"Though the gains have been incremental, the fact that builder confidence has improved over the past two months is encouraging," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones. "Many builders are reporting that while the quantity of buyer traffic through their model homes has not improved dramatically, the quality of that traffic seems to be getting better - meaning that more people appear to be serious about buying in the near future. Builders remain very concerned, however, about the lack of available financing for new-home construction at a time when inventories of completed new homes are quite thin; after all, you can't sell what you can't build."
"The most positive aspect of today's report is the future expectations component, which not only held onto the five-point gain it registered in October, but improved by an additional two points to 25 for November," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. At the same time, he noted, "The most concerning aspect of the report is that survey participants say they have observed absolutely no improvement in their ability to access credit to build viable new projects. This problem is clearly a roadblock to recovery in many markets."
The Northeast was the only region to post a decline in its HMI score in November, with a three-point drop to 13.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.dogwoodmeadowsnewhomes.com/
"Though the gains have been incremental, the fact that builder confidence has improved over the past two months is encouraging," said NAHB Chairman Bob Jones. "Many builders are reporting that while the quantity of buyer traffic through their model homes has not improved dramatically, the quality of that traffic seems to be getting better - meaning that more people appear to be serious about buying in the near future. Builders remain very concerned, however, about the lack of available financing for new-home construction at a time when inventories of completed new homes are quite thin; after all, you can't sell what you can't build."
"The most positive aspect of today's report is the future expectations component, which not only held onto the five-point gain it registered in October, but improved by an additional two points to 25 for November," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. At the same time, he noted, "The most concerning aspect of the report is that survey participants say they have observed absolutely no improvement in their ability to access credit to build viable new projects. This problem is clearly a roadblock to recovery in many markets."
The Northeast was the only region to post a decline in its HMI score in November, with a three-point drop to 13.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.dogwoodmeadowsnewhomes.com/
Housing Starts Decline in October
The U.S. Commerce Department has released figures showing a nationwide decline in housing starts of 11.7%, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 519,000 units in October. The decline was primarily registered in the more volatile multifamily sector, where starts retreated 43.5% to an 83,000-unit rate, while single-family starts posted a more modest 1.1% decline to 436,000 units.
"Home builders continue to be very cautious about starting new projects at this time," said Bob Jones, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "That said, in markets where consumer demand for new homes is reviving, builders are finding it almost impossible to obtain construction financing, and this frustrating situation is producing an unnecessary drag on both new home production and economic growth."
"October single-family starts and permitting activity remained essentially in line with the third quarter's trend," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "What this tells us is that the market is running at a steady, but slow, rate following the downturn that took place upon expiration of the home buyer tax credit program and the economic slowdown this summer. Today, builders are just starting to report some improvement in buyer demand, which should gradually translate into more sales activity, and more starts, as the economy strengthens. The great concern is that this positive momentum will be stifled due to builders' inability to obtain financing for new construction at a time when inventories of completed new homes are very thin."
Regionally, starts activity was mixed across the nation in October, with gains of 12.9 percent and 1 percent reported in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively, and declines of 13.4 percent and 30.5 percent reported in the South and West, respectively. Permit activity showed no change in the Northeast.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.dogwoodmeadowsnewhomes.com/
"Home builders continue to be very cautious about starting new projects at this time," said Bob Jones, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). "That said, in markets where consumer demand for new homes is reviving, builders are finding it almost impossible to obtain construction financing, and this frustrating situation is producing an unnecessary drag on both new home production and economic growth."
"October single-family starts and permitting activity remained essentially in line with the third quarter's trend," noted NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "What this tells us is that the market is running at a steady, but slow, rate following the downturn that took place upon expiration of the home buyer tax credit program and the economic slowdown this summer. Today, builders are just starting to report some improvement in buyer demand, which should gradually translate into more sales activity, and more starts, as the economy strengthens. The great concern is that this positive momentum will be stifled due to builders' inability to obtain financing for new construction at a time when inventories of completed new homes are very thin."
Regionally, starts activity was mixed across the nation in October, with gains of 12.9 percent and 1 percent reported in the Northeast and Midwest, respectively, and declines of 13.4 percent and 30.5 percent reported in the South and West, respectively. Permit activity showed no change in the Northeast.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
http://www.dogwoodmeadowsnewhomes.com/
Friday, November 12, 2010
Mortgage Rates Hit New Historic Lows - Buy a NJ New Home Now
According to Freddie Mac's (OTC:FMCC) latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) and the 15-year (FRM) set new records for all-time lows. The 5-year ARM also reached another new low in the survey while the 1-year ARM remained flat.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.17% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 11, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.24%. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.91%.
Freddie Mac's chief economist Frank Nothaft said "Despite historically low mortgage rates, however, the housing recovery continues to be slow owing in part to household job uncertainty and tight credit conditions.
"If you want to buy a new home under construction in New Jersey, you just can't beat the conditions now - builder inventory, buyer incentives, and these low low rates. Contact me to find the best alternatives for your needs and interests.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.17% with an average 0.8 point for the week ending November 11, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.24%. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.91%.
Freddie Mac's chief economist Frank Nothaft said "Despite historically low mortgage rates, however, the housing recovery continues to be slow owing in part to household job uncertainty and tight credit conditions.
"If you want to buy a new home under construction in New Jersey, you just can't beat the conditions now - builder inventory, buyer incentives, and these low low rates. Contact me to find the best alternatives for your needs and interests.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Problems of Half-built Houses in New Jersey and Nationwide
Half-built homes are prevalent across the country now, leftover from the real estate market meltdown and ongoing foreclosures. Many were tear-downs of existing homes, replaced by skeletal structures that neighbors fear will lower their property values. Residents, lenders, builders, and communities all must face the problems of abandoned, partially-completed houses.
No one company seems to be tracking the numbers, and no experts have thought of a solution. The owners, mostly lenders, are also dealing with foreclosures and short sales of occupied houses. Unfinished houses pose a new challenge for many communities because they have few options for how to best deal with them. Lenders can maintain a property, but can’t improve it until they get ownership. Banks could sell such properties sooner if owners/builders would deed the property to them rather than just walking away.
“It is a national problem," said Eli Lehrer, senior fellow at The Heartland Institute. Even when uncompleted houses are on the market, they are difficult to sell, because they often require full cash payment and face a host of construction issues that only certain builders and lenders are willing to tackle.
"With the market so depressed, some owners and banks are letting unfinished properties sit until prices improve," said John Wozniak, incoming president of the Homebuilders Association of Greater Chicago. And financing is very difficult to get for such projects. “Banks are only going to spend what they have to, because they’ve already taken a hit on the property,” he added. “They’re trying to minimize their loss, the same as any other institution.”
The Heartland Institute’s Lehrer believes the problem of half-built houses will eventually correct itself as the housing market improves. Meanwhile, he doesn’t think neighbors should worry about their property values declining. “For a typical home in a typical neighborhood, a single unbuilt house—or even a group of them—isn’t likely to hurt the value,” he said. “But the presence of an eyesore may make an existing home harder to sell.”
Some municipalities around the country have developed programs to use abandoned or vacant houses, if livable, for homeless families. But this is just one solution to a widespread problem.
If you are interested in purchasing a home under construction in New Jersey and completing it, call or email me for some ideas. If you are a builder who needs to sell, I can help.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
Short Sale Specialist
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
No one company seems to be tracking the numbers, and no experts have thought of a solution. The owners, mostly lenders, are also dealing with foreclosures and short sales of occupied houses. Unfinished houses pose a new challenge for many communities because they have few options for how to best deal with them. Lenders can maintain a property, but can’t improve it until they get ownership. Banks could sell such properties sooner if owners/builders would deed the property to them rather than just walking away.
“It is a national problem," said Eli Lehrer, senior fellow at The Heartland Institute. Even when uncompleted houses are on the market, they are difficult to sell, because they often require full cash payment and face a host of construction issues that only certain builders and lenders are willing to tackle.
"With the market so depressed, some owners and banks are letting unfinished properties sit until prices improve," said John Wozniak, incoming president of the Homebuilders Association of Greater Chicago. And financing is very difficult to get for such projects. “Banks are only going to spend what they have to, because they’ve already taken a hit on the property,” he added. “They’re trying to minimize their loss, the same as any other institution.”
The Heartland Institute’s Lehrer believes the problem of half-built houses will eventually correct itself as the housing market improves. Meanwhile, he doesn’t think neighbors should worry about their property values declining. “For a typical home in a typical neighborhood, a single unbuilt house—or even a group of them—isn’t likely to hurt the value,” he said. “But the presence of an eyesore may make an existing home harder to sell.”
Some municipalities around the country have developed programs to use abandoned or vacant houses, if livable, for homeless families. But this is just one solution to a widespread problem.
If you are interested in purchasing a home under construction in New Jersey and completing it, call or email me for some ideas. If you are a builder who needs to sell, I can help.
Joe Giancarli, SA
Real Estate Advisor
Short Sale Specialist
609-658-2612
jgiancarli@remax.net
http://www.joegiancarli.com/
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